Clay Bell: Performance of continuous emission monitoring solutions under single-blind controlled testing protocol

Continuous emission monitoring (CM) solutions promise to accelerate fugitive methane emission mitigation in natural gas infrastructure by detecting large sources sooner than they would be detected in traditional leak surveys. Quantification by CM solutions has also been proposed as the foundation of measurement-based inventories. Herein we present the first published results of CM solutions tested using a consensus protocol. Single-blind testing was performed with controlled releases at a dedicated facility, using test conditions that were challenging but less complex than typical field conditions. Eleven solutions were tested, including point sensor networks and scanning/imaging solutions. Results indicate detection limits (emission rate with 90% probability of detection) of 3-30 kg CH4/h, with 6 of 11 solutions in the range of 3-6 kg CH4/h, with high uncertainty. Of the 11 solutions tested, 6 provided emission rates estimates and for emission rate of 0.1-1 kg/h, the solutions' mean relative errors ranged from -44% to +586% with single estimates between -90% and +300% (all uncertainties stated as empirical 95% confidence intervals) with most solutions' upper uncertainty exceeding +900%. Solutions' mean relative error for emission rates >1 kg/h is -40% to +93% with two solutions achieving mean relative errors below 20%. In this range, all solutions exhibited single-estimate relative error from below -80% to values above +240%. When test results were simulated using emissions data from a portfolio of facilities, two solutions estimated emissions to within ±20%, while 4 estimated emissions at least double the true emission rate. The large variability in performance between CM solutions, coupled with highly uncertain detection, detection limit, and quantification results, indicate that the performance of individual CM solutions should be well understood before relying on results for internal emissions mitigation programs or regulatory reporting. Additionally, given the rapid development of these solutions, additional implementation standards and regular testing will also be necessary.

Bio

Clay Bell is a Low Carbon Data Analyst at BPX.  He holds a PhD in Mechanical Engineering from Colorado State University, where he was a Research Scientist from 2015 to 2022. At CSU Clay led the design, construction, and operation of the Methane Emission Technology Evaluation Center (METEC) and participated in several emission measurement field campaigns conducted by the research team including upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas infrastructure, as well as renewable natural gas facilities at landfills.  Through METEC, Clay has been involved with testing of over 40 emission detection and measurement solutions, ranging from ad-hoc/development testing to single-blind technology evaluations.  Dr. Bell was also a key contributor to the FEAST and MEET simulation models while at CSU.